The Attack that Needs Fixing

Alexander Blessin was annoyed when one of the journalists at the press conference asked him what's the problem with St. Pauli's attack—when they only managed to create 0.17 of the expected goals against Freiburg last weekend.

Blessin replied by saying that St. Pauli had created a number of chances in previous games, such as the home game against Augsburg, and should've scored more than one goal. And in the context of the Freiburg game, he argued that both teams played really well defensively in that game, so it's hard to create chances.

After the press conference, Blessin also said that the injury problem that has plagued St. Pauli has also affected the way his team has struggled to create chances, especially with most of the injured players being strikers or midfielders (such as Morgan Guilavogui, Connor Metcalfe, Moritz Wagner or, previously, Elias Saad).

With the injury, with the different opponents, he and his team have to adapt to the state of the game. In other words, they have to look at the game differently. For example, when playing against a team that is superior on paper, such as RB Leipzig, St. Pauli tended to play more defensively. But when they played at home against the likes of Augsburg or Union Berlin, the approach then to be more offensive.

However, even though the approach for every game is different (as it should be), it is interesting to see St. Pauli attacking numbers in general so far this season. At least to see the general problem that they have, what makes them often struggle to create chances or goal (as they are the least scoring team in the Bundesliga this season.

I was looking at St. Pauli‘s attacking data on Wyscout and there was one stat that caught my eye, which is all about the conversion of their positional attacks (the attack that started with ball-possession, not counter attack). On average, they've had a solid 26.82 positional attacks per 90 minutes this season, which means they usually attack their opponents about 27 times in a game.

But it's not all about shooting—a positional attack can end in lots of ways, like a foul, an out, offside or losing the ball. What I'm most concerned about is that most of St. Pauli's attacks don't actually end with a shot. If you look at the average, St. Pauli only manage 24.2% of their positional attacks per 90 minutes, which is just 6-7 shots per game from 27 attacks.

That number is pretty low. Especially when you compare it to the bottom two teams in the current Bundesliga table, Holstein Kiel and VfL Bochum. Kiel has fewer positional attacks per 90 minutes than St. Pauli, with only 18.19, but their percentage is higher: 30.6%. They can shoot the ball 5-6 times from only 18 attacking situations.

Bochum, on the other hand, has pretty much similar numbers to St. Pauli in terms of positional attacks, averaging 25.36 per 90 minutes so far this season. But, again, the percentage of that led to shootings is higher: 28%. They can create 7 shots per game from that amount of positional attacks, which is a bit less than St. Pauli's.

There are a few reasons why a team's attacking play might not result in a shot, like player decisions, the pace of the attack, and the numbers on the pitch. Last weekend, Blessin said he gets that his team needs to play smarter when it comes to attacking, like finding better spaces, holding onto the ball better, and having more options up front.

He and his team really need to sort out their attacking play, because St. Pauli has the potential and numbers to be more dangerous up front. Aside from the positional attack numbers, they're averaging 45.75 passes to the final third per 90 minutes, which is higher than the numbers for teams like Augsburg or Werder Bremen, who've scored more league goals than Jackson Irvine & co.

St. Pauli also averaged 2.84 key passes per 90 minutes so far this season, and that number is in the top 10 in the league. Their expected assisted goals (which can measure their creativity) also not the worst in the league with a total of 17.6 or 0.80 per 90 minutes. St. Pauli really can bring something to the opponent‘s final third, but the effectiveness and the execution is often not there.

And on the topic of effectiveness, it's interesting to note that St. Pauli is also struggling with shooting. They're the team that takes the fewest shots on target per 90 minutes and the team with the second-lowest expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes. They're also underperforming their xG, meaning they're scoring fewer goals than expected.

One of the reasons for this is down to the players' decisions, whether that's about momentum or location. Take St. Pauli's striker, Johannes Eggestein, for example. He's got some good locations to shoot in open play, like inside the small box or in the centre of the penalty area, but he needs to work on his decision-making. His shots often get blocked by the opposition.

Meanwhile, one of their wingers, Noah Weißhaupt, has taken very few shots so far. He seems to be struggling with the typical winger's move: Cut inside and shoot in the half-space inside or near the penalty box. Because when he does, it is still easy for his opponents to block.

Elias Saad, on the other hand, has a high number of shots per 90 minutes. His shot location shows that he has a good cut-inside game. He will need to keep this up as he returns from injury and, learning from his previous goals, it would make sense for Blessin to hope that Saad will be able to shoot a little more towards the middle.

Oladapo Afolayan is a jack of all trades. He can cut inside and shoot from outside the box. However, this is what makes him questionable, as he sometimes looks so speculative that some of his shots are blocked or missed. So, in general, he may need to try not to shooting whenever he wants and rather concentrate on increasing the size of the dots here on the maps (i.e. more focus on shooting in the good position).

Morgan Guilavogui is the top scorer for St. Pauli, and there are a few reasons why. He has the best shooting map of all: he loves shooting from the centre area, can position himself as a target in the small box and can also shoot from the cut-inside game. As he's now injured, the second part is something St. Pauli really need to work on.

Without Guilavogui, St. Pauli really lacks presence in the opponent's small box, which is one of the reasons why they have very low expected goals (xG). Blessin needs to find a solution to this, making his wingers more active in that area, encouraging more "smart shooting" and bring more support for Eggestein as another target—Irvine sometimes helps, but alone it's not enough.

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Blessin says he wants St. Pauli to be balanced in defence and attack, but the first part might be more highlighted right now, as defensive stability is what defines St. Pauli. The defensive part is one of the reasons why St. Pauli is seven points ahead of the relegation zone, above teams like Holstein Kiel or Bochum who have scored more goals than them.

But it's fair to say that St. Pauli's attacking play needs a boost. If they're more clinical in front, they could move up from 14th place. And they've got the potential to do so, but they need to be smarter and more clinical than before.