What is wrong with St. Pauli?

Six losses in a row! This was a terrible run for St. Pauli, especially after their impressive start to the season, where they gained seven points from the first three games.

They even lost to Borussia Mönchengladbach, who were at the bottom of the Bundesliga table before the game started.

During those six games, St. Pauli only scored one goal. They were poor in both attack and defence—the aspect that helped them stay in the Bundesliga this season.

The balance is no longer there. So the question is: What's wrong with St. Pauli?

I've analysed their statistics from the first nine Bundesliga games this season and compared them with last season's to see what's happened.

First, in short, Alexander Blessin has changed his approach.

First, let's talk about the in-possession/on-the-ball phase. Compared to last season, St. Pauli has had more possession this season. The difference is huge: from 44.20% to 52.30%.

These statistics alone show that St. Pauli has become a more dominant team in possession than last season, when they were mostly passive.

Context matters, as being behind in the game may have prompted them to be more active with the ball.

However, a deeper analysis of their statistics reveals that St. Pauli is not as 'quick' as before. They make more passes in their attacking sequences and in possession.

On average, St. Pauli needs 46.4 passes to release at least one shot this season. Last season, it was around six passes less. Around six fewer. This season, they make 15.8 passes per minute of possession, compared to 14 last season.

The problem is that this style doesn't seem to be working for them so far. Despite having more passes and possession, St. Pauli seem weaker in attack than last season (when they were also not considered a particularly dangerous attacking team).

They have taken more shots per 90 minutes than last season, but the quality is not as good. Their non-penalty expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes have dropped because they are taking shots from further away from the opponent's goal.

Eric Smith and his teammates also touched the ball less in the opponents' box this season, despite sending more crosses and progressive passes than last season.

They also made more through passes than last season. Their deep completions (non-cross passes targeted at the zone within 20 metres of the opponent's goal) have increased to 7.12 per 90 minutes, compared to 4.88 last season.

However, the number of passes that should give them a chance has also decreased, as has their quality.

So, what happened? Firstly, it seems that this is changing because, this season, St. Pauli have been relying on passes sent to the space behind their opponents' defensive line to attack.

The increase in progressive passes, long passes, through passes and deep completions compared to last season seems to explain this. They wanted to maximise their attackers' off-the-ball runs to the opponent's defensive line.

This idea either came first or the transfers came first, but the additional personnel seem to suit it: Mathias Pereira Lage, Andreas Hountondji and Martijn Kaars are forwards who are fast enough to make off-the-ball runs and exploit spaces.

This worked well for St. Pauli in the first three games. They scored one goal against HSV from exactly this situation.

However, things felt different after that. Throughout the nine Bundesliga games, only 14% of St. Pauli's total shots came from successfully attacking the space behind the opponent's defensive line.

Blessin might want more, and St. Pauli certainly need to play faster and more directly to execute this type of attack.

This situation no longer benefits them. There are various reasons why this might be the case.

Firstly, opponents already understand this style of play, making it predictable and easy to prevent. Secondly, St. Pauli are good at pushing the opponent's line deeper and deeper this season, which is detrimental in this context.

Why is this a problem? Because with a deep defensive line, there is no space for St. Pauli to exploit, and they are not good at facing a low block.

For context: Teams like Borussia Dortmund, VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen deepen their defensive line when they face St. Pauli—the Kiezkicker always advance their defensive line.

You can cope with a deep defensive line if you have a variety of attacking strategies. The problem is that St. Pauli doesn't. Or, they don't have effective variations.

One thing they often do is cross the ball, which is not very effective. As the graphic above shows, their cross accuracy dropped badly to only 24.10% compared to last season.

This is partly because St. Pauli usually lacks players in the opponents' penalty box, especially when Danel Sinani plays as a false nine.

Sinani's tendency to drop deep to receive the ball means St. Pauli lose at least one forward, and situations where one St. Pauli player has to fight against several opponents to get the cross are common.

Nowadays, many teams are trying to solve the problem of facing a deep defensive line by using dribblers. The dribbler-forward is currently very popular on the market. This is why St. Pauli are missing out.

This season, they lack dribblers who can create chances for themselves through take-ons. St. Pauli are less dangerous when they need to play the ball, not only through passes.

In general, the number of dribbles, progressive runs and carries into the final third decreased compared to last season.

This could lead to the idea that St. Pauli wants to avoid losing the ball less often. However, their number of dispossessions has increased even though they are not dribbling as much as before.

Oladapo Afolayan, who made the highest number of take-ons last season, is still in the squad, but hasn't played three 90 minutes yet this season.

Meanwhile, other players who enjoyed making take-ons last season, such as Elias Saad, Morgan Guilavogui and Noah Weißhaupt, are no longer in the squad.

They are not being replaced by other dribblers this season. Hountondji might come close, but his number is still lower than Saad's and Guilavogui's were last season.

The decision to have less dribble-forward might hurt them for the sake of variation, because Kaars or Pereira Lage obviously don't enjoy taking on opponents as much as their predecessors did (either for personal reasons or because of instructions from the coach).

St. Pauli also looks to try more diagonal combinations and attack with a group of players close together, but these variations don't really work either because they're missing the final pass or their players aren't fast enough to turn and face the opponent's goal quickly enough—they often end up sending the ball back.

In terms of personnel, St. Pauli also seem to be lacking variation. Last season, they had at least eight players who could produce double-digit non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, with Guilavogui and Saad at the top of the table.

Well, Kaars and Pereira Lage might already have replaced both of them, even though their combination is still below that of their predecessors. Other than them, St. Pauli doesn't really have an option.

Sinani's numbers dropped, while Hountondji's numbers are even lower than Johannes Eggestein's were last season.

Afolayan, Conor Metcalfe and Abdoulie Ceesay may also sneak into the leaderboard, but they still need to play more. If these three players, as well as Ricky-Jade Jones, do not become reliable contributors with more playing time in future, St. Pauli will only have four players as their main source of goals, which is not enough.

The same situation occurred with passing. Last season, St. Pauli had six players who produced at least double-digit expected assists per 90 minutes.

So far, of the players who have already played for at least three 90 minutes, only three have done so. And their reliance on Danel Sinani has become much more obvious. Again, this is highly predictable.

Not only are their new main attackers unable to create chances for themselves through take-ons, they also still can't create chances for other players. The new wing-backs are not promising in terms of creating chances either.

Joel Fujita has shown that he can also provide end passes, but he often plays deeper. His partner James Sands operates in a similar way.

This could be due to the rest-defence, but the lack of movement from the two central midfielders into the penalty box is another thing St. Pauli are missing compared to last season, when Carlo Boukhalfa or Jackson Irvine were able to provide an additional target.

St. Pauli also conceded more goals on average than last season, so having fewer players in front for the sake of the rest defence turned out not to be an ideal solution because it sacrifices something.

The structure has indeed changed compared to last season. This season, St. Pauli's forwards operate more narrowly than on the touchline (an exception being Afolayan), with wing-backs providing width.

So, against a passive back line and with Sinani often dropping deep to collect the ball, St. Pauli's forwards are always outnumbered by the opponent's back line (it can be 3 vs 2, 5 vs 6 or 4 vs 5 or 4 vs 6).

Attacking in these situations is always difficult, and the team's productivity has shown that this is not effective, with St. Pauli struggling.

If the team's attack really depends on Sinani, who always drops deep to receive the ball, why not try putting him in midfield instead of one of the midfielders, especially when St. Pauli is facing teams at the same level?

To have more bodies in the penalty box against a deep defence, it makes more sense for St. Pauli to play with a target man who occupies the box and is supported by the wide forward.

If that is too risky in terms of defending, then maybe reverting to a more defensive-minded team like last season would be a better idea.

A good idea to bring defensive stability back might be to defend patiently, be less aggressive, focus on directing the opponent to their least favourable area, defend the dangerous zone better and be more precise in pressing.

With the current approach, St. Pauli has conceded more quality shots than last season anyway, and the more aggressive mindset doesn't really bring anything significant to the attack or defence.

Ultimately, Blessin and his coaching team may find solutions to improve St. Pauli's performance in both attack and defence. They proved last season that they are more than capable of keeping this team in the Bundesliga. The problem is that they really need to demonstrate this as soon as possible.