Where is the goal?

St. Pauli have yet to score a goal at home. They have also scored just five goals in eight games. What has happened? What's going on?
The fans of FC St. Pauli haven't heard Blur's Song 2 in their stadium. That's because St. Pauli have yet to score a single goal at the Millerntor. In 8 league games so far, St. Pauli have scored just 5 goals and none of them have come at home. In fact, 3 of those goals came from one game: against Freiburg. Their tally of 5 goals is also the lowest in the league.
To make matters worse, St. Pauli also have the lowest number of expected goals (xG). This shows how much they struggle to create golden chances. Yes, they have shot the ball 100 times in total, but they have only hit the target 27 times. Their conversion rate of 27% is also one of the worst in the league. The fact that St. Pauli have 0.07 non-penalty xG/shots, also the lowest in the league, shows just how poor their shot quality is.
Using Understat's data, I analysed those 100 shots and found that the highest expected goal from the shots taken was Johannes Eggestein's shot against RB Leipzig. It has an xG value of 0.48 but, as you can guess, it wasn't the goal. Of the five goals St. Pauli have scored so far, the highest xG value is only 0.42 (Oladapo Afolayan's goal against Freiburg). On the one hand, this shows that St. Pauli's players are capable of converting low xG values into goals, but on the other hand, it also shows that their goals still come from low-quality chances.
In football today, it is crucial to convert the low-quality xG into goals. However, the ability to consistently create golden chances can increase the likelihood of winning the game. This is something that St. Pauli has been unable to achieve thus far this season, which has contributed to their current struggles (only one win from eight games). There is a discrepancy between their defensive stability and their attacking capabilities. This raises the question of why this is the case. Are the issues related to tactical problems or personnel issues?
The Tactical Problems: Lack of Attacking Variety
From a tactical point of view, it makes sense for Alexander Blessin to stabilise the defensive aspect of the team first. This was their weakness in the first three games and has improved in the last five. They have kept three clean sheets and conceded just 11 goals, the fourth-best return in the league. Their defence is looking very promising and gives St. Pauli a chance to move up the table, as a clean sheet means a point in hand.
Their build-up has also become more varied. In the first three games, I was critical of Blessin's tendency to force the build-up through the middle and straight to the front. Now they are able to play the attack through the flank, they are able to play long. They have also reduced the number of risky passes they make in general, in order to prevent their opponents from making the transition. They don't want to face the counter-attack as often. They still have to deal with some, but at least they are more comfortable getting the ball into the final third. However, that is where the problems lie.
St Pauli really struggle when they get the ball in the final third, either because they are easy to neutralise, because they lack variety or because they lack passing options. Sometimes the players take too long to make a decision, sometimes there's no teammate to pass to, sometimes they're in too much of a hurry. It is as if they are still trying to adapt to the Bundesliga after last season, when they were the dominant side for most of the time, playing more comfortably in possession-based football and attacking at their own pace. Now, when they are on the back foot, when they have to be more direct and quicker, they are struggling to create the right momentum.
Last season it took them an average of 36 passes to get a shot off, this season it has been 34. Sometimes the ball arrived in the final third and Jackson Irvine was still at the back, sometimes the wing-back was too late to help, sometimes the forward had to make a quick decision and couldn't. Yes, individuals like Afolayan and Elias Saad can create moments for the team, but the latter has just been out injured for a long time. The fact that St. Pauli created 1.63 shots from take-ons (dribble that passed the opponent) per 90 minutes shows that they relied on their wingers to create moments, but this is not sustainable given the fact that personnel can sometimes get injured.
In short, they need to consistently create moments. Some games have shown that they can create moments on the counter-attack, because some of their players have the ability to win in 1v1 situations. Some games have also shown that they can attack if they are able to overload some sides to create better spaces and passing angles between individual players. Irvine's huge chance against Wolfsburg last weekend shows how it's possible for St. Pauli to create moments through combination when they dominate one side. Blessin needs to create more of these situations to give his team more possibilities to create golden chances.
Maximising the Set-Piece Again?
Another aspect that could be improved is the set-piece. St. Pauli have only scored one goal from a set-piece (the throw-in against Augsburg), but they have generated 2.35 xG from it according to Opta. They also had two offside goals from the set piece. And given that they were so dominant from set-pieces last season, they have the ability to do the same this season. Peter Nemeth, who was often praised by Fabian Hürzeler for his set-pieces scheme last season, is still there, as are most of the players. They need to maximise it for creating chances.
And, There is a Personnel Issue
Well, let's not forget that St. Pauli have the second-cheapest squad in the Bundesliga this season (according to Transfermarkt's market value). They have brought in a number of new players this summer, but most of their starting XI is the same as last season. And indeed, it is quite normal for them to struggle against teams with more quality and depth. St. Pauli are also trying to close the gap by improving their tactics, and that's a good thing.
However, the fact that their main striker Johannes Eggestein hasn't scored yet, that Irvine is still their most creative player and that they rely too much on the individual ability of Saad shows that there is still a big gap to close. Reports that they are looking to bring in a new attacker in the winter transfer window make sense. The need for more players up front is even more pressing now, especially with the injuries they have. A replacement for Marcel Hartel is also needed, as the team's creativity is often based on sporadic moments rather than excellent final passes.